I was recently sent the latest TIPS spreads, which are downright scary if you believe the Fed should actually try to hit its inflation target:5 year TIPS spread = 1.34%, 10 year TIPS spread = 1.66%, 30 year TIPS spread = 1.82%. Keep in mind that even if the Fed were on target for 2% Consumer Price Index Inflation, the 30 year spread will usually be a bit over 2%, because long term there is more tail risk of high inflation than deflation. The 1.82% figure is worse than it looks.

Over four years ago I met world-renowned numismatist, Steve Contursi, and within 30 minutes of conversation I handed him a check for $80,000. Like most people, you’re probably wondering if I’m suffering from some kind of mental illness. In order to perhaps convince you otherwise let me take you back in time.