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Sometimes you get an unexpected wake up call, a call to action if you will. If it happened in your hotel room, the famous errant alarm clock going off, well in that case you just push the snooze button, grumble a bit and go back to sleep at 2:45 a.m. Then, there is the other kind of wake up call, not just the annoyance version. This kind of call to action comes based on something truly significant and it can be so very important to evaluate or re-evaluate something of considerable importance such as your health, a family matter, or financial situation. It’s the latter mention that I will be focusing on in this article.
We all read or hear about the US debt almost daily. What are our sources: Mass Media, Politicians, and the Financial Sector? Pardon my cynicism in believing any of these institutions would tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth on the debt. So, who is mudding up the waters? Who is the small player and who is the big player on US debt? To answer this question, we need to take a non-agenda driven look at the US debt.
It’s ironic. Oftentimes we talk about investing as if there are an infinite number of possible goals and every individual is going to have a unique set of circumstances that govern the construction of their portfolio. And while there may be some truth to that in a short-term context, I’ve found that the majority of investors tend to have similar long-term ideas. That is: work hard, plan for retirement, protect what you have, and provide for your family.
I was recently sent the latest TIPS spreads, which are downright scary if you believe the Fed should actually try to hit its inflation target:5 year TIPS spread = 1.34%, 10 year TIPS spread = 1.66%, 30 year TIPS spread = 1.82%. Keep in mind that even if the Fed were on target for 2% Consumer Price Index Inflation, the 30 year spread will usually be a bit over 2%, because long term there is more tail risk of high inflation than deflation. The 1.82% figure is worse than it looks.